Poker - a game of skill.

Poker is a game of skill where luck is a factor in the short-term. However, over the very long term (in probability terms, this is the Law of Large Numbers) luck evens out. In a pure luck game it would be random who wins and who loses. However, in a game of skill with short-term luck involved, the more skillful players win in the long run. The skill in poker is making better decisions than your opponents, based on pot odds, hand ranges, and thinking deeper (ie. more levels).

I have played online poker almost every day over the last 4.5 years. I think I have only had 2-3 losing months over that time period. Even though poker is not a zero-sum game, due to the expense of playing (rake), if {[your skill level] + [promotions]} > {[the skill level of your opponent] + [rake]} then you will win in the long run.

My results over the last 50 months illustrate this. The long-term nature of poker and the ability to make better decisions than your opponents are the fundamentals which is why playing poker is clearly a game of skill.

How to turn it off?

Ok, now that we have definitively "proven" the existence of the cashout curse in our micro-limit session today ... now what?

We must ask the important questions:

1) How do we turn off the cashout curse doomswitch?

2) How do we turn on the boomswitch?

We also must note that the doomswitch is not limited to hold'em, I tested out PLO($0.02) and Stud $0.04/$0.08 and had similar results. If I can't figure these out, I am going to be doomed to making $4/hour playing poker like today.

I am going to have to analyze my last couple heaters/heavy winning streaks and see what helped cause them. I think I know the answer, but I can't publish that information as it is too valuable.

Play tight, yah right.

I played a session today trying to play tight and solid. How was I rewarded? ... I got 4-outed, 3-outed, and 2-outed ... in my 1000 hand, 1 hour session.

4-out Guy overshoves 2x the pot on the turn with KK on a TQxQ, 3 diamond board and gets rewarded with a river K. I had TT.
3-out Guy checkraise bluffs the turn with QT(no heart) on a AK6x 3 heart board and gets rewarded with a river J. I had 66 (with heart).
2-out Guy cold calls preflop and flats the Kxx flop, and gets rewarded with a turn J (goes check-check, cuz I am pro), and I call his half pot bet on the blank river. I had AK.

I still won a little because I managed to win a few pots, where I somehow faded a gutshot with my top set, faded a flush draw with my overpair, and picked off 3 bad bluffs.

Today is the first day this year that I am behind 300k VPP pace. I might have to reconsider the target because I have to move WAY down in limits because of the "cashout curse". I will probably be playing .01/.02 for a while. Last cashout turned into a 7-day losing streak, probably the only one I have ever had in my life.

Feeling Lucky?

I was feeling lucky today, after taking about 10 river beats in Razz and Stud H/L. It is something illogical to feel lucky, but when I do I probably have a better mindset to make good decisions, which is logical. Anyhow, when feeling lucky I try to play a little higher and this time a little higher was only NL($2)(6-max) with a full stack ... $200 vs my $10 recent buyins.

I picked some 3-handed tables and woo-wee within 5 minutes I stacked a guy KKv99 AIPF for a full stack, and then on another table I stacked a guy AAvJJ CRAI on the turn when we both had overpairs for a full stack (when he called my checkraise shove I thought I got boned by a set since there was a 9 and T on the board).

It was my best day so far this month at +$550. As boring as short-stacking 6-max is, I think playing nitty at full ring is even more boring. I had stopped playing so much full ring due to all the light 3-betting and regs. 3-betting me with crap because of my loose preflop game. That style really hurts my natural style and the natural adjustment to that play is to play nitty and trap or 4-bet shove with good hands. I have to decide if I want to adjust and become a nit, or what my next plan of action will be.

Shortstacking ---> Zombie.

I feel like I am turning into a zombie lately. I have short stacked 60k hands (48 hours) at NL($0.50) this year and I am getting bored of it. I am happy to be winning 2.1 PTBB/100, which is $26/hr plus an additional $13/hr in rakeback.

I want to go back to playing normal poker, but honestly I can't seem to handle losing my stack over and over again as a big favorite. For example, I lost 3 AIPFs in 1 minute today as a heavy favorite which is $30 (KKvKJ, AKsvAJ, AKvA6), if this was full ring, full stacked that would have cost me $300. In full ring though, the allin is usually on the flop to a 2-outer (overpair vs. set) or 3-outer when they pair their kicker.

I guess I have some thinking to do.

Back to "normal".

I don't know why I thought I could run good for more than 1 day in a row. I was back to "normal" this morning and was 15 short stacks below EV in a short session.

Today I actually looked at what the hands I lost with since it is hard to comprehend from that graph. ... Here are the biggest losers EV-wise for allins preflop: TTvK7o, AAv99, QQvKQs, AKsv22, TTvAKs, AAv77, AKvQQ, AKvJJ, ATvA5s, AQvA2, AQvTT, AKvATs. I don't even want to look at the postflop ones, but this stuff should even out eventually, it just doesn't seem to.

The whole point of this short stacking lately is that this was happening to me constantly for $100 buyins, so I decided I need to see what is going on with $10 buyins over a larger sample.

Opposite Day.

Ran 16 short stack buyins above EV today. As I mentioned in the comments to a poster, the EV is always going to be below what it should be because it does not correct for multi-way allins where somone folds.

Anyhow, normally when I run like this I like to keep playing as long as possible (like at least 4 more hours, 6k more hands). The reasons are at least 2 major ones and probably some minor ones. 1) when you run good, you play good, and 2) when you are winning more you are likely playing worse players. Anyhow, I have to go because I have a date, something I am not good at all at.

Quarterly $1M freeroll.

I blew it in the first quarterly $1M freeroll. I lost most of my stack like a fish with QJvAQ on Q high board after his dubious small 3-bet preflop. I should have been eliminated way earlier twice, but I drew out QQvKK and AKvAA. I was 800th/2500th at the break and 900 were paid (900th was $280 and 1st was $152k). I am a bit upset with my bad play.

I also lost with quads for the second time (at least I was short stacking) today. 88v9Ts on 88x board ... JQ makes hims a straight flush. The last time I lost with quads was JJxxx v KKxxx in a $1.10 5-draw SNG about a year ago when we both drew 3 and both hit quads.

Standard? ... Maybe.

Nice session today, 21 buyins (short stacks $10 each) below EV ...

Ok, going to get a massage now.

PokerStars cheater: ace523.

PokerStars cheater: ace523.

I am not sure how he is cheating, but he is.